Rise and Fall Strategy on Deriv: Complete Guide to Direction Trading

What Is the Rise and Fall Strategy?

The Rise and Fall strategy is the most fundamental and widely used binary options approach on the Deriv platform. It is a direction-based strategy: you predict whether the price of your chosen market will be higher (Rise) or lower (Fall) than the entry price at the moment your trade expires. If you are correct, you receive a fixed payout. If you are wrong, you lose your stake.

Because of its simplicity and the straightforward nature of the prediction required, Rise/Fall is the recommended starting point for all new binary options traders. The core skill being tested is not mathematical — it is directional: can you identify conditions where price is more likely to go up or down over your chosen time period?

How Rise/Fall Contracts Work on Deriv

When you place a Rise trade, you are predicting that price will be strictly higher than the spot price at entry when the contract expires. When you place a Fall trade, you are predicting that price will be strictly lower than the spot price at entry.

The key mechanics:

• Entry price (spot): The price at the exact moment you confirm the trade
• Expiry: The time or tick at which the outcome is determined — can range from 1 tick to several days
• Payout: A fixed percentage of your stake (e.g. 80%) paid if your prediction is correct
• Loss: Your full stake if the prediction is incorrect
• Tie: If price at expiry equals exactly the entry price, the trade is refunded (your stake is returned)

Unlike Over/Under or Even/Odd (digit strategies), Rise/Fall requires you to assess directional momentum — a real analytical judgement based on the chart.

Choosing Your Expiry

Expiry selection is one of the most important decisions in a Rise/Fall trade. Common options on Deriv range from single ticks to hours or even days. For most beginners, 1-minute to 5-minute expiries offer the best balance between:

• Enough time for a genuine directional move to play out
• Short enough that the market condition you identified is still valid at expiry
• Fast enough feedback to learn from multiple trades in a single session

Very short expiries (1–5 ticks) are dominated by random noise rather than trend, making them more like coin flips. Very long expiries (hours or days) introduce more variables and overnight risk. The 1–5 minute range is where most Rise/Fall strategies find their clearest signal-to-noise ratio.

Three Approaches to Rise/Fall Entries

1. Trend Following

The simplest and most beginner-friendly approach. Identify the clear direction the market has been moving over the last 10–15 candles on your chart. If price is making consistent higher highs and higher lows, the trend is up — look for Rise entries. If price is making lower highs and lower lows, the trend is down — look for Fall entries.

The key discipline: only trade in the direction of the established trend. Do not try to pick reversals until you have significant experience reading when trends genuinely turn.

2. Support and Resistance Bounce

Price often reverses at well-established support and resistance levels — areas where it has bounced multiple times before. When price pulls back to a clear support level in an uptrend, look for a confirming bullish candle (like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing) before entering a Rise trade. When price rallies to a resistance level in a downtrend, look for a confirming bearish candle before entering a Fall trade.

This approach requires learning to draw support and resistance levels accurately. Read our Support and Resistance Guide for a detailed walkthrough.

3. Moving Average Crossovers

A more structured entry trigger: use two moving averages (e.g. a 10-period and 20-period simple moving average). When the faster MA crosses above the slower MA, it signals potential upward momentum — look for Rise entries. When the faster MA crosses below the slower MA, look for Fall entries. Moving average crossovers work best in trending markets and generate many false signals in choppy, sideways conditions.

What Markets to Trade Rise/Fall On

Rise/Fall can be traded on any market Deriv offers, but the best choices for beginners are:

• Volatility 50 Index or Volatility 75 Index: Enough movement to create clear trends, but not so extreme that conditions change unpredictably. Available 24/7.
• EUR/USD: The most liquid forex pair, with well-documented behaviour around key levels. Trade during the London–New York overlap (13:00–17:00 UTC) for best conditions.
• GBP/USD: Higher volatility than EUR/USD, more pronounced moves, but also more noise. Suitable after you have experience on EUR/USD.

Risk Management for Rise/Fall

• Risk no more than 1–2% of your account per trade
• Set a daily loss limit of 5–6% of your balance and stop when you reach it
• Limit yourself to 5–10 trades per session as a beginner — focus on quality setups
• Only enter when your defined conditions are met — not when you simply “feel” the market will move
• Journal every trade with the specific reason for entry, result, and what you observed

Common Rise/Fall Mistakes

• Trading against the trend: Trying to catch reversals before they are confirmed is a low-probability approach. Trade with the trend until you have data showing your counter-trend entries are consistently profitable.
• No defined entry conditions: Placing Rise or Fall trades based on feel rather than specific, repeatable conditions is not a strategy — it is gambling. Write down your entry rules before you open the platform.
• Using 1-tick expiries: At very short expiries, random noise dominates. The directional analysis that justifies a Rise or Fall trade needs time to play out. Use at least 1–5 minute expiries.
• Ignoring the trend: Even a well-placed support bounce entry in a strong downtrend has lower probability than the same setup in an uptrend. Always know the broader directional context.

Building a Rise/Fall Routine

The most effective Rise/Fall traders have a routine: they review the chart at the start of each session to identify the trend and key levels, wait for their specific entry conditions to appear, place the trade with a consistent stake, and journal the result. The process is deliberate and consistent — not reactive.

Start on demo with a single market and a single entry approach (trend following works well to start). Run 50–100 trades, journal everything, and evaluate the data. If your win rate exceeds your breakeven threshold consistently, you have a foundation worth refining. If not, adjust the entry conditions and repeat.

For more on building your process, see our Trading Plan Guide and Trading Journal Guide.